Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
